FanGraphs @JeffWZimmerman Predicted Exactly How Many SPs Would Hit the DL in ’13. What about ’14?

Source: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Source: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

I’m a little late to the party here, but I just read this and couldn’t believe it.  The guy behind BaseballHeatmaps.com, Jeff Zimmerman, wrote an article before last season predicting that 44.8 starting pitchers would hit the Disable List in 2013, based on a model he created.  The final number of pitchers to hit the DL in 2013?  44.

Science!

Pretty amazing stuff, and perhaps I’m more astounded than most because this morning I used a calculator to solve 28 + 15…

(Its 43 if you’re still finger-counting).  Nonetheless, even though its not gear-related, I think Zimmerman’s prediction for 2014 is worth a look.  What’s even better is he predicts EVERY STARTER IN THE BIGS.  This is Fantasy gold.

Interesting facts:

  • There are only 4 pitchers with less than a 30% chance of hitting the DL.
  • MLB average is 39%, so for every 5 man rotation, 2 will hit the DL.
  • Bartolo Colon weighing in at 64%, the greatest percentage chance by a significant margin.
  • Andy Pettitte has retired but clearly Zimmerman isn’t falling for his tricks this time, because he’s included in this list.

Check out the spreadsheet here and the article here.

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